Super Saturday 12-03-2016

Meeting: Flemington

Rail: +3m entire circuit
Track: Good 4
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 3
Weather forecast: Humid, possible drizzle. 24 degrees

Speed maps (click): PDF – Flemington 120316 maps

 flemington-Races-map-e1362006747877

Race 1
12.40PM TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1200m
Speed: Not clear
Most advantaged: N/A

1. CONCEALER
She was good on debut then spelled. She came back dominant in the Blue Diamond Prelude but didn’t threaten in the Blue Diamond. She is better than that and will appreciate the drop in class here.

2. SELENIA
She ran on and won well last week and has drawn for a similar run though meets a few here with stronger experience.

4. SO SERENE
She wasn’t far off the Blue Diamond winner on debut.

MAIN DANGER
6. EMPHATICALLY
She has drawn wide again here and the outside may be the fast lane as we saw last week. She ran on well last week and has been competitive at Group 3 level.

 

Race 2
1.15pm MSS Security Sires’ Produce Stakes 1400m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

4. REVOLVING DOOR
He ran on well behind Flying Artie on debut then came out and won last start. He looks to have talent.

5. SEABURGE
He won nicely on debut then ran on soundly last start. From an inside barrier and a slow pace he should sit closer here.

1. POWER TRIP
He won here on debut back in November beating Flying Artie. He ran on strongly in the Blue Diamond at his most recent outing at big odds. He will find this easier.

MAIN DANGER
2. JACKSON
He resumed well in Listed grade running on fromt the tail of the field finishing in the placings behind a smart one. Damien Oliver goes on.

 

 

Race 3
1.55pm Goodwood Racecourse Trophy 1100m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

1. BASSETT (NZ)
He was beaten on the line when resuming a fortnight ago and will be better for the run. He wasn’t far off Mahuta last prep and is unbeaten at 1100m from two starts.

2. BROCKHOFF
He’s third up here and looks ready to strike. Damien Oliver stays on after two good runs in this prep and this is a slight drop in class. The even pace will suit him, he will sit midfield from a good draw.

7. GREY STREET
She’s in form and will appreciate the drop in weight. She was good with 58.5kg in BM70 grade a fortnight ago. The extra 100m will suit.

MAIN DANGER
9. SUPER CASH
She resumed in good order last start and Luke Currie stays on from that effort. She draws out a bit here and will sit midfield. She is a good each way chance.

 

 

Race 4
2.30pm Incognitus Blamey Stakes 1600m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

2. STRATUM STAR
He was good in the Group 1 Futurity a fortnight ago and looks ready to win. This is a slight drop in class but he still meets some high quality runners here. Though he has no wins at 1600m he has placed in all four tries. From barrier 7 he will sit right behind the leaders and should be too strong here.

10. HE OR SHE
He resumed well then never threatened at 1800m a fortnight ago. He drops back to 1600m here which he has a good record at and it will suit. Craig Williams goes on.

9. KENJORWOOD
He will be the leader here from barrier 2 and has a good record at 1600m. He runs well here also and has second up form.

MAIN DANGER
5. THE UNITED STATES (IRE)
He ran on well when resuming and has a good second up record. The extra distance will suit though he will be near the tail of the field and may need the speed to be on more than predicted.

 

 

Race 5
3.10pm TAB Kewney Stakes 1400m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

2. DON’T DOUBT MAMMA
She has drawn the carpark here and I am against horses starting so wide but she looked so strong winning when resuming. She is unbeaten at 1400m from three starts and loves Flemington. She gets a slight drop in weight with the step up to Group 2 company. The fast pace will suit her, she will no doubt be running on strongly from the tail of the field.

4. CATCH A FIRE
She surprised many by stepping up and winning the Group 2 Armanasco after only winning her maiden the start before. However that maiden win was by 4L and she looks talented. She has drawn well here and will be up on the pace.

5. MOSSIN’ AROUND
She’s so consistent and no doubt will be good again here. She has ran well behind two talented ones recently in Risque and Catch a Fire and from barrier 1 should get a sit just behind the leaders.

MAIN DANGER
3. BADAWIYA
She resumes here and has been jumping out well. She was so strong winning the Manifold last prep then ran well behind the promising Stay With Me. She draws well with barrier 2.

 

 

Race 6
3.50pm Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

1. CHAUTAUQUA
He resumed super winning the Lightning with 58.5kg and has therefore been allocated 58kg here. His second up record is strong and he has drawn wide, we did the outside lanes were the quickest last week. There will be enough speed here for him and I believe he will salute, albeit at short odds.

2. DELECTATION
He beat Chautauqua at almost even weights last prep in the Darley. He wins the weight swing here and has won second up. The step up to 1200m suits, 4 from 5 of his wins have been at this range.

8. THE QUARTERBACK
He ran on well in the Oakleigh and is well weighted here. I’d say he would be sitting behind Chautauqua right at the tail and is a rough chance.

MAIN DANGER
6. JAPONISME
He was just no match for Chautauqua in the Lightning but did run very well. Craig Williams goes on and will no doubt be making full use of the weight gap. Any rain will be an advantage.

 

 

Race 7
4.30pm Australian Cup 2000m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

5. OUR IVANHOWE (GER)
He was completely luckless in the Peter Young, he was caught behind runners most of the way then held up just as he was getting momentum. He has second up form and will appreciate the extra distance. He was Group 1 competitive last prep when he ran a good 3rd in the Caulfield Cup.

6. BOW CREEK (IRE)
He had the perfect run in the Peter Young. He has drawn wide here and with a slow pace can sit closer. He is untried at 2000m but I don’t see it being any problem, he can relax in the run.

11. FENWAY
She is third up here after a strong 2nd in the Peter Young. She ran strongly in the Group 1 Myer Classic behind Politeness last prep. She has a good record at 2000m.

MAIN DANGER
10. SUAVITO
She resumed winning the Group 1 C.F. Orr then ran soundly in the Futurity. She likes Flemington and has a win at 2000m though it was over a year ago. She can lead here, with the slow pace she is a big threat.

 

Race 8
5.10pm Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

2. MISS ROSE DE LAGO
She resumed well a fortnight ago in the Mannerism. She draws wide here and will be up on the pace. There doesn’t look much speed on paper and she looks a strong winning chance. She has a good record at 1600m though no wins here from 5 outings. Ignore her out if we get enough rain for a track downgrade, but that is unlikely.

1. NOBLE PROTECTOR (GB)
She will also be up on the pace and is resuming here after three sound trials. She won this last year with 54kg.

8. MOSSBEAT
She was ridden against instruction last week and had the fastest 400m split of the race. Look for her to be sitting closer today. Barrier 6 and out to 1600m suits.
MAIN DANGER
10. ANAPHORA
She is unbeaten at 1600m from two starts and is so consistent. She drops down to 54kg, surprisingly this is her first outing at Flemington!

 

Race 9
5.45pm My Kitchen Rules Stakes 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

4. CORONATION SHALLAN
She has no wins when resuming but has trialled soundly. She beat Azkadellia last prep in Group 3 company. This is easier than most of her starts last prep. She is well weighted with 54kg and is too consistent to leave out.

6. JESSY BELLE
She ran soundly in the Tressady under an average speed and is third up here. She has a good record at 1400m and this is easier. The even speed will suit.

5. JIMANDO
He has a good second up record and will appreciate the 6kg weight drop. He will be on the pace here and with a strong 1400m record is a very strong chance at decent odds.
MAIN DANGER
2. TRIED AND TIRED
He is the only starter here with more than two runs on the board this prep and will have a fitness advantage over many. Forgive him last start at 1100m which was definitely too short. He gets back out to 1400m here. The even pace will suit him, from a middle barrier he will sit midfield.