Oaks Day – Flemington

Date: 5/11/2015

Meeting: Flemington
Rail: +2m
Track: Good 3
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Soft 5
Weather forecast: Rain and possible storm 24 degrees

Speed maps (click): PDF – Flemington 051115 maps

flemington-Races-map-e1362006747877

 

 

RACE 1
12.05pm Red Rock Deli Plate 1700m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

9. CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL
Fit and running honestly this prep. The extra distance suits after closing in well last Friday at Moonee Valley. She has ran well behind Herstory before. She will get a good sit up near the pace and will take some catching. She was scratched on Tuesday in favour of this.

3. SOLAR BURST
C.Williams jumps on. Barrier 18 isn’t ideal but she has been running well if you take out her last start at Pakenham. She steps back to 1700m here which suits.

6. I’M A TIGER
Unbeaten this prep after two outings and closed well last start after drawing the carpark. Drawn barrier 11 here and up in class but can go on.

MAIN DANGER

5. FINDA FITTER FILLY
Sound when stepping up to 1700m last start. This is a lot harder but on her best efforts she can be in the finish.

 

RACE 2
12.40pm Swisse Wellness Trophy 1800m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

9. BERISHA
Big win last start which suits the extra distance here, and is dropping 3kg. He hasn’t carried less than 57.5kg this prep. He’s absolutely flying and will run a strong race here.

4. LUCKY PADDY
Drawn the carpark here but he is fit. Ran well last start when wide and got bumped then went on to win.

6. FIREHOUSE ROCK
Closed well last start and drops down to 54.5kg here. He may need more speed in the race to win but he is running so honestly.

MAIN DANGER

8. BARON ARCHER
Closed off well last start behind Lucky Paddy and is a chance if he runs to that ability.

 

RACE 3
1.20pm Off The Track Subzero Challenge 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

1. SLATE ON EDGE
He was average when resuming this prep but has been flying since. From barrier 10 he can cut across and sit on the pace and be hard to catch. He is proven on dry and soft tracks.

2. SECRET TOY BIZNESS
She is back at her best distance here and once again meets Slate On Edge better at the weights. She is proven at the track having won this race last year.

6. CLEMO
He has first up form and has won at Flemington, and won well! He is a light weight chance here and will get a soft run from barrier 1.
MAIN DANGER

9. HARBOUR GREY (NZ)
Closed well when resuming last start at 59kg. He drops down to 54kg here and has drawn well with barrier 4.

 

 

 

RACE 4
2.00pm Gucci Stakes 1100m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

6. SECRET AGENDA
She is absolutely flying this prep. She stays down in the weights here and has drawn to be competitive. She has been freshened up here.

4. LAKE GENEVA
She defied the leaders bias of the day last start when she won in Listed company. She has placed in Group 2 company previously.

1. OTTOMAN
Proven at the distance, third up here and dropping back from Group 2 company. Barrier 15 if my only query.

MAIN DANGER

10. ZARA BAY
She won her maiden last start by 3L. Dwayne Dunn jumps on board and she has drawn perfectly with barrier 7.

 

 

RACE 5
2.40pm TCL Curved TV Stakes 1800m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

12. BENGAL CAT
Average last start when jumping up to 2000m, she drops back to 1800m and listed company here. If she can overcome barrier 16 she will be right in it.

2. LOYALTY MAN
Won his maiden softly last start when drew barrier 11. Not much luck with the barrier here after ending up with 12 but J.Noonan stays on and he drops 2kg.

9. DUKE OF BONEO (NZ)
If he runs up to his maiden win he will be competitive. Drawn similar here and should get an easy spot behind the leaders.

MAIN DANGER

1. RAGNAAR (NZ)
He has been running soundly in some tougher races recently carrying similar weight.

 

 

 

RACE 6
3.20pm Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes 1000m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

6. THE QUARTERBACK
He’s getting better with each run in this prep and should get the perfect opportunity here. There’s enough speed in this race for him to come over all of them.

17. WILD RAIN
She has a fantastic strike rate at the distance (7: 4-0-1) and has won on good and soft tracks. The speed may not be in her favour though.

15. BEAU RADA
Flying this prep, both runs have been at the 1000m. Drawn wide but on his recent form he can be up there with them.

MAIN DANGER

1. NICOSCENE
He has never been out of the trifecta first up and has D.Oliver on board. He rarely runs bad.

 

 

 

RACE 7
4.00pm G.H.Mumm Stakes 1100m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

4. MISS PROMISCUITY
Take out her Moir run where she got too far back and she’s flying. She just keeps running up to whatever is thrown at her. She has never been out of the top 3 at 1100m and proven on the track. She has a good strike rate on good & soft tracks. I expect she will get a perfect trail from barrier 5 and be in the finish.

 

3. AFLEET ESPRIT
Not bad last start with big weight and she boasts a 66% strike rate at the distance.  Has run okay on soft ground before.

18. TUSCAN SLING
Fit and in form. Darren Weir sure knows how to get them ready for race day! She was good stepping up in class in the Alinghi. Drawn wide here but I’m sure she will be competitive.

MAIN DANGERS

11. JAPHILS
Drawn horribly with barrier 20 but if the outside can run on she will be in the finish. She is a good leader who can fight off the rest of them.

RACE 8
4.40pm Crown Oaks 2500m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

2. JAMEKA
Good win in the Vase last start and very good behind Stay With Me in the 1000 Guineas. There doesn’t look to be any speed in the race so I expect she will go forward and can take some beating.

 

3. SACRED EYE
Very good win over the boys last start. She will be up near the speed and if she handles the wet she will be competitive.

4. AMBIENCE
Has won on soft before. Big win in the Group 2 Wakeful where she was 3.5L clear. I expect she will get a similar run here.
MAIN DANGER

8. MUZYKA
She won her maiden two starts ago by a massive 5.3L. She then stepped up and ran third in the Group 2 Wakeful. B.Avdulla stays on from that.

 

 

 

RACE 9
5.20pm Crown Resorts Plate 1600m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just off pace

 

2. EXCITES ZELADY
He has a fantastic record at the distance and is in form. No placings on a soft but has a win on heavy. The pace looks to be even and I expect him to get a perfect sit behind the leaders.

 

7. ROCK FORTHE LADIES
Unbeaten at the distance and ran on well last start on a leaders bias day. He has drawn perfectly with barrier 3.

3. BURNING FRONT
He has only been out of the top 3 on one occasion this prep from 13 starts. Proven on a soft track and has drawn perfectly with barrier 4. Steps up 4.5kg.
MAIN DANGER

14. KINCAPLE CHIEF (NZ)
He’s stepping up in class here but is third up and gaining good fitness from his previous two runs. I expect him to finish top 5.