Melbourne Cup Day – Flemington

Date: 3/11/2015

Meeting: Flemington
Rail: +2m
Track: Good 4
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 3
Weather forecast: Sunny 22degrees

Speed maps (click): PDF – Flemington 031115 maps

flemington-Races-map-e1362006747877

 

RACE 1
10.40am Emirates Airline Plate 1000m
Speed: unknown

 

1. MISSROCK
Good win on debut from the tail of the field.

8. MOTOWN LIL
Good trial.

12. PROMPT RESPONSE
Full sister won the Group 3 Maribyrnong Plate last spring.

 

RACE 2
11.20AM TAB.com.au Trophy 1700m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

2. ZARZALI
Big run home last start but just too far back to catch the leaders. Have a sneaking suspicion it may be the same here but it is a smaller field so hopefully she won’t be too far off them coming down the straight. Third up here so should be fit enough to catch them.

1. PRECIOUS GEM
Dropping back in grade after an average run last week. She was good in the Let’s Elope behind Amicus here. She sneaks up to 58kg.

9. SO FEESABLE
Running honestly in lesser grades, drops 5kg here.

MAIN DANGER

5. INISHOWEN
Proven at the track and only carrying 54kg here. Ran a good second third up last prep.

 

RACE 3
12.00pm J.B. Cummings AM Tribute Plate 2800m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

7. DE LITTLE ENGINE
He runs so honestly at Flemington but is often too far off the leaders to catch up. The fast speed in this race gives him the best chance, he will be running on strongly when the leaders slow.

12. FOUR CARAT (GER)
Good ride when came to Melbourne last start. He will get a similar chance here and seems to be improving the further he gets. Good chance at the 54kg.

15. GINGERBOY
Fit and in form. He drops 4.5kg here and is proven on the track.
MAIN DANGER

14. POP ‘N’ SCOTCH
Good behind Zanteca last start who almost won the Lexus on Saturday. Drops 6kg here but barrier 18 is no favour.

 

 

RACE 4
12.40pm Lavazza Short Black 1400m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

3. PYRROLIC
Good record at Flemington and two wins from four starts first up. I’d expect him to sit off the speed from barrier 20, and he should be a good chance with a fast pace predicted. Has been gelded.

1. GOOD PROJECT
Scratched Saturday in favour of this. Barrier is no favour but he’s flying. He carried 61kg to run third two starts ago then fought well to win with 58kg last start.

16. TASHBEEH
Two good runs in this prep so far, third up here so should have the fitness to be competitive but barrier 19 is against him.

MAIN DANGER

7. COUNTER SPIN
Absolutely flying this prep, he comes over to Melbourne but is proven at the distance and shown a will to work to the line.

RACE 5
1.20pm Schweppes #FlemingtonFling 1000m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

1. PROMPT RETURN
Boasts a win at this track and distance on his second outing in Group 3 company. He has first up form and both wins have been on a dry track. Barrier 10 is fine, this race is down the straight.

3. SPILL THE BEANS
Good last start in listed company, he would have gained competitive fitness from that run. He is third up here.

5. VICEROY
Impressive record at the distance (3: 2-0-1) which have also all been on dry tracks. Ran  on well last start on a leaders bias day. He’s fit and drops 1.5kg here.

MAIN DANGER

9. DIVINE MR ARTIE
Won his maiden at this distance last start by 2.8L. This is obviously harder but hasn’t run a bad race yet.

 

 

RACE 6
2.00pm Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

3. SERENADE
Dropping down to listed grade here but staying at 55kg. She wasn’t disgraced in the Golden Slipper back in March where she ran 2.1L off Vancouver. She should get a good sit just off the leaders from barrier 7.

10. VALLEY SWEETHEART
Very good last start where she missed the bob. Won her maiden well previously and looks to be on the up.

5. DON’T DOUBT MAMMA
Ran 2.3L off Stay With Me in the Atlantic Jewel three starts back, then beat Sacred Eye who came out and beat the boys in the Group 3 Caulfield Classic. She is proven at the distance.

MAIN DANGER

7. COMPREHEND
Trained by Phillip Stokes who is in fine form, he doesn’t bring his horses over here for nothing. I’m not a fan of barrier 13 but she’s fit.

 

 

RACE 7
3.00pm Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

8. MAX DYNAMITE (FR)
I have been a fan of Max Dynamite for months and just think he is a class above. All of his wins have been on a soft track but he has placed on a Good track on three occasions. The last horse to win first up was Vo Rogue who like Max Dynamite, also ran over the jumps. He smashed Trip To Paris by 11.5L in the Lonsdale Cup. He ran second in the Galway two starts ago carrying 64kg, that’s 9kg more than here! He boasts an impressive first up record (4: 2-0-1) and has won at 3300m so there’s no questioning if he can stay. His dam is by Monsun who sired the last two Melbourne Cup winners in Fiorente & Protectionist. There looks to be speed in this Melbourne Cup and he should get a dream run off the speed from barrier 2.

 

4. OUR IVANHOWE
Another one I have been following for the last three months. He is  just getting better with each run and step up in distance. His third in the Caulfield Cup was eye catching, he has a strong turn of foot. Our Ivanhowe won the 2400m Group 1 Grosser Preis Von Baden impressively by 3L in September 2014 not only carrying 60kg but also ending Sea The Moon’s unbeaten streak. That win was on a Good track.

3. FAME GAME
He probably had the run of the day in the Caulfield Cup. Barrier 12 is ideal and his second up form is great. He has won at 3400m before and looks to have come on from his Caulfield Cup run.
MAIN DANGERS

10. TRIP TO PARIS
Very good in the Caulfield Cup and flying this prep. Proven at the distance and should get a good run from barrier 14.

2. CRITERION
Won the Caulfield Stakes in great fashion then ran well in the Cox Plate. My only query is if he gets to 3200m and has he already peaked?

 

 

RACE 8
3.55pm James Boag’s Symphony Stakes 1800m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

9. MALICE
Good in the Crystal Mile last start and the extra 200m here can only help. He drops back to Listed company here and down 2kg.

 

7. SADLER’S LAKE
Just okay when coming to Melbourne last start. I’m not a fan of backing them running the opposite direction for the first time. He should have the hang of it now! From barrier 5 he should be up on the speed in what looks to be a slow pace.

10. THE BOWLER
Running honestly and was good behind Amovatio in the Weekend Hussler two starts back. Drew wide last start in the Sale Cup and ran soundly. Drawn better here.
MAIN DANGER

15. AWESOME ROCK
Good behind Stratum Star in the Coongy, barrier 15 is not ideal but he has the fitness to overcome it.

 

 

RACE 9
4.35pm MSS Security Sprint 1200m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just off pace

 

4. GRIANTE
Three wins at the distance and four on a Good track. She bolted home in the Moir from last to finish only 1.6L off Buffering. She is dropping back from Group 1 to Listed grade.

 

2. KURO
Good record at the distance (6: 2-0-2). He should get a good sit just behind the pace.
11. THE MONSTAR
Good when resuming two stars back behind Sabatini and was only 1.6L off the winner in the Group 2 Schillaci last start. He gets some weight relief here.
MAIN DANGER

12. MANDLA
Only finished out of the top three at Flemington once and has won at the distance 4 times. Good second up record and gets some weight relief here.

 

 

RACE 10
5.15pm Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just off pace

 

4. WAWAIL
She loves Flemington and has an impressive record at the distance (3: 2-0-1). She ran 0.1L off Politeness last start who came out and won the Myer Classic on Saturday impressively. The extra distance suites & she should get a perfect sit behind the leaders and will take some catching.

 

2. PEACE FORCE
Fantastic record at the distance (8: 4-3-1) and second up (5: 3-2-0). Barrier 16 is painful but if she overcomes this she will be competitive.

 

7. EXCLUSIVE LASS
Won the Black Pearl well last start when ran wide. She’s flying this prep and should be competitive again.
MAIN DANGERS

10. LUCKY LAGO
She has a good record at SWP and ran home strongly in the Group 2 Blazer three starts ago.