Jeep Australia Stakes Day – Moonee Valley 23/01/16

Date: 23/01/2016

Meeting: Moonee Valley
Rail: +3m entire circuit
Track: Soft 5
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 4
Weather forecast: Showers clearing, 21 degrees

Speed maps (click): PDF – Moonee Valley 230116 maps

MV Map

RACE 1
1.00pm Think Big Stud Handicap 2040m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

2. YULONG BABY
Her win against the boys last time out was impressive. She won strongly in a BM90 in F&M grade previously and comes to a BM84 here. M.J.Dee’s 2kg claim helps, she is well weighted here and I can’t see her losing. She should get an easy trail midfield and with the even pace she has every chance.

3. YELLEN (NZ)
She has been running against some good ones and is getting close to a win. She was good last time out where she dropped back to 1600m on a two week backup. She comes back up to 2040m here which suits, B.Melham stays on.

4. RING DA BELLE
She has been running on strongly but may need the speed to be on here to win. Each way.

MAIN DANGER

6. MONOGRAM
She wasn’t bad two runs back against the males in a BM64 where she had 57.5kg. She drops to 54kg and is against her own sex. Though this is harder, she is running too consistently to ignore.

 

 

RACE 2
1.37pm Hille’s Home Extensions Handicap 1200m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

1. SNOOPY
He is unbeaten first up. He ran quite well last prep, he was rushed up to black type too fast in my opinion but did run on well in the Group 3 Guineas Prelude where he finished 4th behind Bon Aurum. Dylan Dunn’s 3kg claim helps here and the fast pace should suit.

2. DANUKI
He has a strong first up record. His first up run last prep was a strong 2nd in Listed grade at this track and distance.

5. CHALLENGE ACCEPTED
He won his maiden strongly last time by 2.3L and was spelled after. He did win his trial a fortnight ago.

MAIN DANGER

8. TRI HARDA
She does come against the boys but her maiden by 2.5L win a fortnight ago was strong.

 

RACE 3
2.12pm Cube Finance Handicap 1200m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

2. MISS STEELE
She ran close to some good horses in her previous prep (1L to Miracles Of Life in the Group 1 Sangster, 2L to Miss Promiscuity) and she can win this on class. She runs well at Moonee Valley and her first up form is better than it looks on paper. The fast speed will suit her, she will sit at the tail of the field.

3. CELERITAS
She is going well this prep and has good form at this track and distance. The speed will suit her as well, she will sit near the tail of the field but may get caught in traffic from the inside barrier.

4. OUR HARMONY
She is unbeaten second up and coming off a good run on New Year’s Day. Her record at 1200m is very strong (5: 2-1-1) and she gets in with only 52kg after Jake Bayliss’ 3kg claim.
MAIN DANGER

1. CHOOSE
She has first up form and 1200m suits. Three from 5 of her wins have been at 1200m. She is well weighted with 56kg after the claim but there may be too much speed for her. However, she is being found in the market and must be included.

 

 

RACE 4
2.47pm WT Partnership Handicap 2040m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

1. FLYING LIGHT
He is flying and ran close to a good mare last time out. Up to 2040m here suits. He will sit on the pace and with an even speed predicted he should be able to run away and win.
8. ZANDARRAL
He won his maiden second up and ran okay when stepping up to 1800m in a harder race. 2040m looks like it will suit and he should be at a good each way price.
5. O’LONERA
He won his maiden by 5.2L back in November and has run soundly in his two races since. 2040m will suit.

MAIN DANGER

11. POPPINHOLLA (NZ)
She has no bad runs from four starts. She won her maiden two starts back from the tail of the field then ran on strongly in a BM64 to finish third beaten 0.7L. She drops down to 53.5kg after H.Coffey’s claim and must be included.

 

RACE 5
3.26pm 1Print VOBIS Gold Star 1514m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

1. BURNING FRONT
He is absolutely flying and doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon! He sneaks up to 59kg here but has form here and around 1500m. He won with SWP three runs back. He looks to be the only leader here and with the slow pace I expect he will be hard to beat.

6. TEN GOALS
His win a fortnight ago was a perfect ride from the tail of the field. He can go on from that and L.Currie stays on. I expect he will sit a little closer here with a slow pace predicted and he has drawn a much better barrier.

7. KHUTULUN
She comes back to 1514m here which suits, she has no wins past 1600m. She has run soundly at SWP back in November.

MAIN DANGER

4. DEL PRADO
He sneaks up to 59kg here but has won with a big weight before. He is third up here and has the slow-speed “master” D.Oliver on board. He knows how to perfectly time moves in a slow pace. His only run at 1500m was back in 2014 where he didn’t finish off but the step up to 1500m looks fine now on his strong 2nd at 1400m last time out.
 

RACE 6
4.06pm Campolina Handicap 2040m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

7. USE THE LOT
He has form here and ran 1L off Leica Day at his last outing. This looks an easier field and C.Symons stays on board. He has drawn much better here and should be hard to beat with an even speed.

11. PRIMA (NZ)
He is running well this prep and drops to a dangerous 51.5kg after B.E.Thompson’s claim. He was only 1L off Yulong Baby a fortnight ago. 2040m looks like it will suit.

12. BULLISH STOCK (NZ)
He is untried at 2040m but I don’t see it being a negative, he drops down to 54kg here and C.Williams jumps on. He will sit just behind the leaders and comes in a few barriers after the scratchings.

MAIN DANGER

4. ALROUZ
He is third up & has form here. He controlled and won back in June 2015 at 2000m but that was at Flemington. He stays at 55.5kg after the claim and is an each way chance at good odds.

 

 

RACE 7
4.46pm Jeep Australia Stakes 1200m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

1. REBEL DANE
His first up record is very impressive (7: 4-1-1) and 1200 is his go. He ran well at WFA at two of his runs last prep, he was only 2L off Chautauqua in the Manikato! The fast speed will suit him, he will be near the tail of the field. He looked fit in a recent trial 11 days ago.

4. TRUST IN A GUST
He has strong form first up, at Moonee Valley and at 1200m. However I am wary of Weir quoting he will need this run. Jumping from a wide barrier and sitting on the speed may take it out of him as well but he certainly has the class to be competitive here and has to be included.

11. SIRBIBLE
He is unbeaten at the track & distance and has never finished outside the top thee from 8 starts at 1200m. He won a BM78 at his last outing here by 3.2L!

MAIN DANGER

3. HUCKLEBUCK
The 2014 Emirates Stakes winner is back! He is definitely the class runner here but trainer Phillip Stokes said he isn’t at his ideal fitness weight as yet. However he must be included on his form. He has won at WFA.

 

RACE 8
5.26pm Browns Sawdust and Shavings Handicap 1000m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

7. SHAKESPEAREAN LASS
She has won her last two in good fashion including a strong 3.5L win last time out. She has been freshened up 4 weeks here so the step back to 1000m shouldn’t be an issue. She has drawn wide here so I don’t see her being right on the pace and that is a good thing, with the fast speed I would prefer her to sit behind the leaders.

1. TREVINDER
He runs well here and was good two starts back behind Grane. He sneaks up to 60.5kg here but have to respect the jockey & stable.

11. RUNSATI
He has second up form and I am inclined to include him after his resuming win. L Meech stays on and he stays at 54kg. However the fast pace may be against him, he will be up on the speed.
MAIN DANGER

6. PATHWAYS
She runs well here and has two wins from 5 starts second up. Though this is harder and she will need everything to go right for her, she will be fitter from her first up run and she did run well early in her last prep.

RACE 9
6.05pm William Hill Handicap 1000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

10. RATIONALITY
Have to be wary when Phillip Stokes brings his runners over and the market shows, she has been smashed into short priced favouritism. Dom Tourneur stays on after her big 2.4L win a fortnight ago. This is a step up in grade but on that effort she can win here. She will sit midfield and the even speed will suit.

 

4. VOLCANIC ASH
He sneaks up in the weights here but the claim does help. His win two starts back was good then he ran soundly when wide a fortnight ago. He has drawn better for an easier run here.

5. ORION (NZ)
He loves Moonee Valley and has good form at 1600m. D Oliver jumps on here and wouldn’t have taken the ride unless he had an opinion of him. He may need a bit of a duck & weave ride from the inside barrier.
MAIN DANGER

9. TUFF HOST
He resumed well with a win and kept closing well a fortnight ago in town. 1600m suits but he may need the speed to be on, he will most likely be near the tail of the field from the wide barrier.