Flemington New Year’s Day

Date: 1/01/2016

Meeting: Flemington
Rail: +3m
Track: Good 4
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 3
Weather forecast: Partly cloudy 27 degrees

Speed maps (click): PDF – Flemington 10116 maps

 

flemington-Races-map-e1362006747877

 

 

RACE 1
12.25pm New Year Plate 1000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just off pace

1. SWORD OF LIGHT
Won impressively on debut by 5.2L. Finds a similar field here and with only 55kg she should be hard to beat.

5. LA RENARDE
Jumped out well last week. Looks to have class.

2. MAGICAL MILLY
She made ground on debut in listed company and was quickly spelled. She resumed averagely but should be better and fitter for here.

MAIN DANGER

4. GIMLET
Showed speed in a jumpout a fortnight ago.

 

 

RACE 2
1.00pm Straight Draw Handicap 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

1. DISTANT ROCK
He seemed to have found a bit of luck and jumped much better last time out where he won by 1L. He has a good record at the 1400m and stays in BM78 class. The even speed should suit him, he should get a soft run behind the speed. Forgive his 7th on Oaks Day, that was on a heavy 9 track. All his wins have come on a dry track.

7. HARBOUR GREY (NZ)
He is flying this prep and drops 8.5kg here. He comes up in grade but has been competitive in BM90 grade during the Spring carnival.

3. MIHANY
He ran well in this class & distance last time out and finds a similar field here. He will be up on the pace and could take some catching.

MAIN DANGER

2. WE’VE GOT THIS
He generally runs well here and at 1400m. Forgive his run two starts back where he finished 5th, it was on a Soft track and he is lengths better on a dry surface, though he did make ground late. A must for multiples.

 

RACE 3
1.36pm Byron Moore Handicap 2000m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

6. SECOND BULLET
He comes to his ideal distance and runs well at Flemington. He will be up on the pace and with a slow speed predicted here he should be too good.
3. EVANGELIST (GB)
He has only had one try at the 2000m for a win. All of his runs recently have been between 1600-1700m. The extra distance now may suit but I’m not overly confident especially with the slow speed. On his Sale Cup win he is good enough.

1. JACQUINOT BAY
He needs to find form but has the class to be competitive here. He has run well in group company previously. He will be on the speed and must be included in multiples if they crawl.
MAIN DANGER

2. ELECTRIC FUSION
He ran on well last time out to win with no weight. His record at the track & distance is good (2: 1-0-1) and is one of the many chances here.

 

RACE 4
2.11pm Nouvelle Star Handicap 1200m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

3. LAHQA
She resumed well and the extra 200m here suits. She drops in grade but stays at the same weight after the claim. The slow speed will suit her, she will be up on the pace.
2. LADY ESPRIT
Her 2.8L win last time out from a wide barrier was impressive and she should run up to this class. She has drawn much better here and sneaks up in the weights but keeps D.Oliver on.

8. MAJESTIC LASS
She won her maiden strongly last time out when resuming and will have a fitness advantage from that.

MAIN DANGER

7. MAGNA ROSSA
She won her  maiden last time out by 2L well where she was wide most of the way. She has the fitness to go on here and should sit a little closer from barrier 3.

 

RACE 5
2.46pm Red Tempo Handicap 1000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

5. ROUGH JUSTICE
He has only run outside the trifecta once from 6 tries here. His record at 1000m is impressive (10: 3-4-1) and he will appreciate the drop in weight here. He has second up form and should be too good here.

3. TREVINDER
Three from 4 of his wins have come at the 1000m. He comes from the flying stable of Ellerton & Zahra and looks to have found form.

8. LUCKY SYMBOL
All of his wins have been at 1000m. He is flying and must respect when P.Stokes brings horses over here, they generally run very competitively.

MAIN DANGER

1. GRANE
He is always a danger in these sprints and must be included in multiples. He may need a bit more speed on to win here but no doubt he will be running on strongly.

 

RACE 6
3.26pm Flemington 1840-2016 Handicap 1600m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

5. BLACK SHEEP
He is in form and Weir horses tend to keep their form once they find it. He will be just behind the speed and if he runs up to the same effort as last time out should be in the finish.

9. SURGE AHEAD
He stepped up to 1600m last time out and ran on strongly. This is a stronger field.

13. MAKING MAYHEM
Third up here and looks ready. He ran on soundly last time out and keeps J.Noonan on board from that effort.

MAIN DANGER

10. MR PAGO
Third up here. He ran well here last prep in an open handicap to finish 2nd from the tail of the field. He has drawn wide here.

 

RACE 7
4.06pm Standish Handicap 1200m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

5. DURENDAL
He stays at 1200m and this is his ideal distance. 5 from 6 of his wins have been at this distance and he runs well at Flemington. He’s going for the hat trick here and will sit just behind the pace. His win last time out at this track & distance in open company shows he will be competitive here.

 

9. SARAJEVO
He ran on strongly behind Durendal at this track & distance from the tail of the field. He should sit a bit closer here but may need a bit more speed to win.

6. OFFICE BEARER
He backs up here after an average run on Boxing Day. If he runs up to his Doveton Stakes 2nd he will be competitive.

MAIN DANGER

1. CHURCHILL DANCER
His record at the track & distance is too good to ignore (9: 4-0-0) and he did win a Group 2 earlier in this prep. The 59kg may be against him but he certainly has the class advantage here.

 

RACE 8
4.46pm Bagot Handicap 2800m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

2. MUJADALE
It doesn’t look like they will go at breakneck speed here and he will be up on the speed. He can stay and ran well in the Werribee Cup behind Tall Ship. He ran 4th here last year after a very similar prep and with the 56kg (vs 59kg last year) he will be up there.

4. IMPERIAL LASS
She’s going well this prep and kept her spot throughout in the Werribee Cup. She has no wins at Flemington but one outing was the Oaks in 2014 and another at an unsuitable distance.

6. DANJEU (IRE)
He’s flying this prep and it looks like the 2800m should suit. His two runs in Melbourne have been impressive. He should get the box seat here.
MAIN DANGER

7. TUNES
Very strong win last time out by 3L in a BM82. He comes to Melbourne and this is obviously harder. He will be up on the speed and if he runs up to his last win he is a good each way chance and some juicy odds.
RACE 9
5.26pm George Watson Handicap 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

3. BURNING FRONT
He is absolutely flying! From 17 starts since joining Weir’s stable he has only ran outside the top 3 on one occasion. He stays at 1400m and this is his best trip. He will be up on the pace and should be too good.

 

2. BRITISH GENERAL
He’s third up here and loves Flemington. His record at the track & distance is impressive (7: 3-2-1). He was a bit average last time out but could have been a bit sore as his run previously was after a long spell of over 12 months. He will sit just behind the speed.

11. MR BACKCHAT
He comes to 1400m and this is his ideal distance. He drops down to 54kg and should get an easy run from barrier 1.
MAIN DANGER

4. DEL PRADO
He has wins at the track, distance & second up. He resumed a winner and has been freshened up 4 weeks here. He gets some weight relief here dropping down to 54.5kg after the claim.