Flemington 30-01-16

Date: 30/01/2016

Meeting: Flemington
Rail: +9m entire circuit
Track: Good 4
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 4
Weather forecast: Shower or two, 23 degrees

Speed maps (click): PDF – Flemington 300116 maps

flemington-Races-map-e1362006747877

RACE 1
12.25pm Michael Stewart Plate 1100m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

6. SUPIDO
He is very lightly raced and has a strong first up record. He is proven here and should get an easy trail mid-field. C.Williams stays on after an impressive win last prep back in July.

9. CHIAVARI
Her win against the boys at her last outing wasn’t bad, this is harder but she can go on and generally runs well. She drops down to 52kg after the claim here.

8. LORD DA VINCI
He ran well when sitting closer to the speed a fortnight ago. He does draw wide here but as this is down the straight and there doesn’t look to be much speed he can sit closer again. He has a good record at the distance.

MAIN DANGER
2. MR WALKER
He won well with 61kg a month ago and has been freshened up for here. He drops down to 57.5kg with the claim and has drawn a better barrier.

 

RACE 2
1.00pm Peter Heath Handicap 1200m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

4. ZUPACHARGED
He drops back from black type and has placed both times here at 1200m. He was only 0.8L off Durendal in the Group 3 Standish. This is easier.

1. LONROCKSTAR
He’s third up here and didn’t run badly in the Standish. He generally runs well at Flemington.

2. DECIRCLES
His overall record at the track & distance is pretty good and I like him coming back to 1200m where 4 from 5 of his wins have been.

MAIN DANGER
6. ONEROUS
He ran on strongly back in December to win and drops down to 54kg here. He was only 0.3L off Malaguerra in September who went on to win twice within a week during the Spring Carnival.

 

RACE 3
1.37pm Barrie Kerr Handicap 1600m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

4. VITAL IMPORTANCE
She ran on well in this class a fortnight ago and meets the winner better at the weights here. The extra distance suits here, she has a good record at 1600m. She also runs well on a softer track if we get a downgrade here.

2. MISS SOFTHANDS
She sneaks up in the weights here but her win a fortnight ago was strong. She is unbeaten this prep.

 

8. DARCY’S LAW (NZ)
She won strongly at her most recent outing a fortnight ago. She comes up in class but does drop down to 54kg, on that run she is an each way chance.
MAIN DANGER

1. NOELA’S CHOICE
She is third up here, the step up to 1600m and back to F&M grade suits. She ran well against the males in the Group 3 Standish. She has drawn well but is up in the weights.

 

 

RACE 4
2.12pm Doriemus Handicap 2000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

2. REAL LOVE
She ran very well in the Group 2 Perth Cup where she jumped from a wide barrier and was wide for most of the race, she finished only 2L behind Delicacy. She has since joined Weir’s stable and I don’t see the step back to 2000m being a problem, she has been freshened up 4 weeks. She will sit mid field and with the even pace I suspect she will be the one to beat.
3. SECOND BULLET
His record at the track & distance is too good to be ignored and he could take some running down, he will be up on the pace. D.Oliver stays on after a strong win here a fortnight ago in a similar class. He doesn’t have form on a wet track.
9. TASHBEEH
He is in form and flying. He drops down to a very light 52.5kg after T.Marquand’s claim and can sit closer to the speed from barrier 1.

MAIN DANGER

1. STAR ROLLING
The step up to 2000m last time out suited and he stays at that distance here and has drawn the same barrier too! He was only 0.6L off Signoff in Listed company back in December and is in form.

 

RACE 5
2.47pm Andrew Guy Handicap 1100m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

1. HEATHERLY
Her 3L win last time out against the males was very impressive, she is absolutely flying! She comes back to Fillies grade here, has drawn in again and I suspect she will take running down though there does look to be some speed in this race, she will have to run up to her best (again).
3. ALASKAN ROSE (NZ)
She has won first up and ran well in her first two races, including a dominant 4.5L winning debut! She was quickly stepped up to group company and I think that pushed her a bit too far. The fast speed will suit her but I am worried the 1100m might be a tad sharp.

 

2. MAGNA ROSSA
She is flying and ran okay behind an in form colt at her last outing. The step back to 1100m is fine, K.Mallyon can be hard to run down when on the pace!

MAIN DANGER

8. LOVE DAYS
She has only had three starts but all have been impressive. Trainer C.McDonald obviously has an opinion of her, she has been nominated for the Group 3 Bow Mistress in Hobart next Friday. In form M.Zahra stays on and she has drawn well.

RACE 6
3.26pm John Calvert Handicap 1400m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

1. DUBIO
He is third up here after a strong win from the tail of the field a fortnight ago. The step up to 1400m is perfect and half of his wins have been here. N.Hall stays on. The fast pace will suit him perfectly, he will get a soft run off the speed.

7. PATTERN
He won his maiden by 2.2L on debut then stepped up to city class and won dominantly. He stays at 1400m here and drops down to 54kg.

11. HE’S A MORAL
He is in form and will only improve, he is in the Weir stable! He wasn’t bad at his last outing and the extra 200m here can only help.

MAIN DANGER

3. HARBOUR GREY (NZ)
He won at this distance and class on New Year’s Day. He ran well here on Oaks day in a stronger grade. He will need to go against speed to win here but I don’t see him being far from the winner.

 

 

RACE 7
4.06pm Kensington Stakes 1000m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

5. WILD RAIN
Five from 6 of her wins have been at the 1000m. She ran well behind The Quarterback during the spring carnival on heavy ground after the freak storm and has a better advantage in the weights here. She is absolutely flying and can go on here. She has drawn well and will be up on the pace but doesn’t necessarily need to lead, she can take a sit behind the leaders and have an easier run.

1. THE QUARTERBACK
His win on Oaks day is so impressive it needs to be watched to be believed. His run was perfect. However, first up in Listed company with 60kg may be a bit of an ask. The speed is in his favour. 

7. THE MONSTAR
He has first up form and ran well in Group 2 company last prep at the start of the carnival.

MAIN DANGER

11. PINK PERFECTION
She has had two very good runs in this prep so far and has a good record at 1000m. Three from 4 of her wins have been at 1000m. She stays down in the weights and must be included.

 

RACE 8
4.46pm Kyle Smith Handicap 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

4. DIG A PONY
She was good when resuming and should have finished closer but was blocked for a run at critical stages. She drops back to BM84 grade here and Dwayne Dunn jumps back on board having ridden her last prep to a good win. She has won second up and does run well at Flemington.

9. CAMDUS (IRE)
He has only been beaten once from four starts and there’s no reason why he can’t go on. This is harder but he drops down to 54kg and has drawn well.

7. THE NEW BOY
He has a good record here at 1400m and is going up in class but drops down to 55.5kg. He looks to be the main leader here, if he can control the race and slow the tempo down he may be in the finish.
MAIN DANGER

12. BEST SUGGESTION (NZ)
He is a light weight 51kg after the claim here, dropping 7kg from his last run. He has drawn well with barrier 1 and will get an easy run. He has the chance to sit close to the speed here and that will suit, I don’t see them going at break neck speed.

RACE 9
5.26pm The Summer Series Handicap 1800m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

5. PRIX D’OR
He has been up for a while but is in form and can measure up here. There doesn’t look to be a clear leader, or much pace in this race and I think he will sit up there. He has run okay at 1800m.

8. KINCAPLE CHIEF (NZ)

He does need to find form and dropping back in grade here helps. S.Baster jumps back on after riding him to a nice second in December. I have him mapped up on the speed as well.

4. SIEGESTOR
He has run close to some good ones but I do think he needs a bit more pace here to win, but he can’t be left out. He did run on well here two starts back.
MAIN DANGER

1. AZURITE (IRE)
His first run in Australia was good and he does have top weight here but D.Oliver is on board and must be included. He will sit mid field but we all know how D.Oliver feels about sitting behind the pace in a slow speed!