Derby Day 31/10/2015

Date: 31/10/2015

Meeting: Flemington
Rail: True
Track: Good 3
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 3
Weather forecast: Rain & possible storms 25 degrees

SPEED MAPS (click) PDF – Flemington 311015 maps

flemington-Races-map-e1362006747877

RACE 1
11.45am Carbine Club Stakes 1600m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

3. BASSETT
He’s third up here and back to group 3 company. He wasn’t disgraced in the Caulfield Guineas where he finished 2.8L off Press Statement. He will relish the dry track and is the class horse of the race

4. MAHUTA
He’s just flying, no bad runs from 4 starts. He beat Holler last start who came out and won at Moonee Valley last week. Brad Rawiller takes the ride from the suspended Mark Zahra.

6. GREDINGTON
He was freshened up before his run in the Group 2 Stutt Stakes where he ran on to finish third. He drops back to Group 3 company and down 1kg here. Freshened up 4 weeks again here.

MAIN DANGER

10. FLYING LIGHT
He’s fit and will get a good sit behind the speed. If the leaders slow down he will be a good each way chance at odds.

 

 

RACE 2
12.20pm Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

1. MY POPPETTE
Strong win at Moonee Valley last week where she led in a slow pace race on a leaders day. Good previously in the Group 2 Manifold. Barrier 2 suits and she’ll get a soft run on the pace in an even speed race.

4. AMBIENCE
She is flying this prep. Barrier, jockey, track condition and weight all suits here. She ran on well last start in the Group 3 Ethereal at SWP.

2. DAWNIE PERFECT
Fantastic win last start breaking her maiden when she ran on from the tail of the field. Up to Group 2 company here and up 1kg.

MAIN DANGER

6. BENGAL CAT
Average run when resuming but then sound in the Group 2 Classic last week. She meets My Poppette better at the weights here and O.Bosson takes the ride.

RACE 3
1.00pm Guvera Stakes 1400m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

3. DISPOSITION
Absolutely flying. He has only missed the quinella once out of 11 starts where he finished 4th. Up 2.5kg here and barrier 11 but that shouldn’t worry, he’s dropping back from Group 1 company where he ran second to Lucky Hussler. There looks to be a lot of speed in the race and he’ll be right behind them and should prove hard to beat.

10. MR UTOPIA
He loves Flemington and is back at his best distance. He has strong second up form and will be off the speed as well.

7. CHARMED HARMONY
He is unbeaten at the track and distance. Barrier 14 is not ideal but he’s fit and flying.
MAIN DANGERS

2. MESSENE
Dropping down from Group 1 company here, if she’s just off the pace she could be a danger with the fast speed.

 

 

 

 

RACE 4
1.40pm Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

1. EXOSPHERE
I can’t fault him here, and his short price only confirms this. Unbeaten this prep, only two losses once where he pulled up with medical problems and the other was his first run. From barrier 2 he will get the perfect run behind the speed and with his acceleration he will certainly be hard to beat, and probably the (very short priced) bet of the day.

2. READY FOR VICTORY
Not bad last start in the Guineas where he finished third when he sat closer to the speed than previously. Expecting him to be closer again here and positioned to be competitive. No wins at this distance but he has never been far.

3. SUPER ONE
Unbeaten at the distance and second up. His unbeaten run finished last start when he ran second at Cranbourne. Back to 3yo grade here but sneaks up in the weights.

MAIN DANGERS

8. SEBRING SUN
He ran on well where he ran 2.8L third to Exosphere in the Golden Rose. Good record at the distance. He won his maiden at the 1200m.

RACE 5
2.25pm Lexus Stakes 2500m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

 

3. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE
Fantastic when running on last start but just couldn’t catch Melbourne Cup hope Amralah. He drops down in grade and down 1kg here and has drawn a much better barrier.

8. BOHEMIAN LILY
She’s in form and drops back in grade here. She’ll get a soft run on the pace in what looks to be a slow speed. She ran good last start from a wide barrier and has drawn much better here with barrier 5.

7. RULING DYNASTY
He can use barrier 1 to his advantage and sit closer to the pace, he has good record on a dry track.

MAIN DANGERS

2. HAWKSPUR
Huge run in the Bart Cummings from the tail of the field to finish third. He was only 1.5L behind Our Ivanhowe who ran an impressive third in the Caulfield Cup.

 

 

RACE 6
3.05pm Longines Mackinnon Stakes 2000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

 

4. PORNICHET (FR)
He was very good in the Cox Plate when he ran on for fourth in what was a leaders day where he jumped from barrier 11. He draws much better here with barrier 4. Good record at the distance (5: 2-0-0) and will relish the dry track.

5. CONTRIBUTER (IRE)
Fantastic record at the distance (7: 5-0-1), he has only been average this prep but has the class to win.

15. SET SQUARE
She didn’t run out the 2400m in the Caulfield Cup where she led after jumping from barrier 12. She did all her work early, she comes back to 2000m here. She runs well at Flemington and is proven at the distance.

MAIN DANGERS

13. STRATUM STAR
Drawn barrier 14 here but run well from wider previously when running at WFA, as he gets here. He is in form and rarely runs badly.

 

 

RACE 7
3.50pm AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

 

7. TARZINO (NZ)
Held up badly in the Caulfield Guineas where he was pushed back to last and didn’t get clear running until the 200m. Good last weekend in the Vase where he finished off strongly from the tail of the field on a leaders bias day. He drops 1.5kg here and the extra distance suits.

 

3. KIA ORA KOUTOU
Unbeaten! Perth horse (they’re flying on our tracks!) who is obviously stepping up in class but has been winning so softly he deserves a crack at this. There looks to be some speed in the race and he’ll get a good run from barrier 1 behind the pace. Will he remain unbeaten after today??

1. LIZARD ISLAND
Placed in a Listed before winning his maiden! Won his maiden in style by 3L and has since ran twice, finishing second both times in group company. He was only 1.8L off Press Statement two starts ago. He drops 1.5kg here and B. Shinn jumps back on.
MAIN DANGERS

2. SHARDS
Good last start in the Vase and drops down to 55.5kg here. Barrier 11 is against but he has the fitness after last week’s run.

 

 

RACE 8
4.35pm Myer Classic 1600m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

 

15. STAY WITH ME
What a horse! She is hard to miss here dropping 6.5kg at WFA. She had one of the rides of the day in the 1000 Guineas where she won comfortably by 1.8L. Jameka ran second in that race then came out to win the Vase last week. Barrier 15 is not ideal but she has won from barrier 14 at Moonee Valley which is a much harsher track.

 

4. MISS ROSE DE LAGO
She has a good record at the distance (5: 2-1-0) and all her wins have been on a dry track. She will get an easy run on the pace from barrier 2.

 

1. ROYAL DESCENT
Very average in the Caulfield Cup, that was her first run outside the trifecta in her 5 runs this prep. She comes to mares grade here but shoots up in the weights under WFA. H.Bowman jumps back on, she’ll get the perfect trail from barrier 5.
MAIN DANGER

13. SLIGHTLY SWEET
She didn’t run badly in the Tristarc, drawing out a bit and the extra distance suits.

 

 

 

RACE 9
5.20pm TAB.com.au Stakes 1200m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just off pace

 

 

3. DOTHRAKI
He has a great record at the distance (12: 3-3-4) and has won at Flemington. He has second up form and would have gained a fitness edge where he won a fortnight ago when resuming. 1200m suits.

 

5. UNDER THE LOUVRE
One of the most unlucky horses going around? He sits right at the tail of the field and has finished less than 1L from the winner in his last three starts. The speed looks to be even in this race but if the leaders go hard he will be right there, again.

 

8. KNOYDART
Great when resuming last start, he was only 1.2L off Chautauqua! He has a strong second up record and drawn barrier 5 here.
MAIN DANGERS

9. ECLAIR CHOICE
So good when dead heated with Lumosty in the Caulfield Sprint. He has drawn barrier 13 here but the extra distance suits. He is worth having a bit each way.