Chester Manifold Stakes Day – Flemington

Date: 16/01/2016

Meeting: Flemington
Rail: +6m entire circuit
Track: Good 4
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 3
Weather forecast: Sunny 24 degrees

Speed maps (click) PDF – Flemington 160116 maps

flemington-Races-map-e1362006747877

RACE 1
12.25pm Better Beyond Plate 1100m
Speed: Not clear
Most advantaged: N/A

1. HEY DOC
He looked smart winning on debut and can go on.

2. BRINGAROO
Huge 4.2L win at Geelong on Boxing Day. The Moody young ones seem to keep their fitness well.

9. QUEEN MAGDALENE
Good jump out in December.

MAIN DANGER

5. LESSYD
He has had two good runs from as many starts and looks ready but may need further.

 

 

RACE 2
1.00pm Owner.racing.com Handicap 1400m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

 

2. DIG A PONY
She resumes here in a good race and has a strong first up record. She comes back to her favourite track and can win here. She will need to run against the speed though but she is good enough.
3. VITAL IMPORTANCE
She drops back to 1400m here after her last run a fortnight ago which is a worry but she does have a good record at 1400m. She has been running in black type races, this won’t be much easier but she has been brought over here for a reason and I’m keen to watch how she goes.

5. MISS SOFTHANDS
She is unbeaten this prep. She will be up near the pace and the slow speed will suit her. This is a step up in class but with D.Oliver on board she is sure to look the winner at some point.

MAIN DANGER

4. ITERATION (FR)
She has no wins first up but does generally run close. She was only 1.5L off Jessy Belle at her first run in Australia. She looks to be going places.

 

RACE 3
1.37pm Seascay Handicap 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

4.LAHQA
She has been running well behind some handy horses in her last two races including against some older ones two starts back. She is third up and looks ready but is against the boys here. The even speed will suit her, she will be up on the pace and could take some catching.

3. TWISTING TYPHOON
He won well on debut then ran on strongly in the Vobis Gold Carat a fortnight ago. He looks to be a smart one and could just be too good here.

 

2. TYRANNIZE (NZ)
He is running well this prep, take out his run last time out where he overraced. He won well at 1200m in this grade previously and the step up to 1400m looks ideal. D.Oliver jumps on board.
MAIN DANGER

9. NICCOCO
He has been running on strongly without winning in his last three tries. He broke his maiden well previously.  He could get his chance here at the 1400m. He ran well at his only try at Flemington two runs back

 

 

RACE 4
2.12pm Rain Lover Handicap 2500m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

3. DANJEU (IRE)
He’s looking like a serious stayer and back to 2500m shouldn’t be a problem. His second in the Bagot was very impressive and he sneaks back up in the weights here. He will sit behind the speed, Craig Williams jumps on and he should be too good.
2. LEICA DAY
He is absolutely flying and has won his last three. The blinkers seem to be doing the trick! He is untested at the 2500m but should last the trip.
4. QUICK STRIKE
He has been running okay in Listed grade in his last two outings and comes to Vic here. I’m wary of backing horses running anticlockwise for the first time but if he can handle it he is a chance here.

MAIN DANGER

6. PURPLE SMILE
He won well at Ballarat back in November but this is tougher. I have him up on the speed but he is better ridden mid-field so won’t be surprised if he drifts back from an inner draw. He can handle the trip.

 

RACE 5
2.47pm Mitty’s Racing Colours Handicap 1200m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

5. JUDGES
He has a strong record at the trip and is running well this prep. He will be just behind the speed and should get an easy run. A soft track would suit him better but he has form on the dry.

10. SMART DART
Three out of 4 of his wins have been at 1200m. He is flying but this is harder. He will be at good each-way odds.

6. MASTER SOMMELIER
He has been running on behind some good ones and gets a chance here. The speed will suit him and he runs well at 1200m. He finished off strongly last time out to run second in this class.

MAIN DANGER

11. STAR STEALER
He has no bad runs to his name and must respect the Weir stable. He is untried at 1200m but it looks like it will suit. The speed may be against him if he is close to the speed but he must be included.

RACE 6
3.26pm Inglis Dash 1100m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

1. GOLD SYMPHONY
He has only tasted defeat once and has won in Group company twice. He will sit mid-field and with a fast pace predicted should get the perfect run to salute.

4. HELLBENT
The blinkers go on here. He is flying this prep, take out his Group 1 run where he made no impression though surprisingly Dwayne Dunn jumps back on from that effort.

3. THE BIG DANCE
She gets some weight relief here after a good effort when resuming. She does come against the boys here but must be included in multiples at a good price.

MAIN DANGER

12. MOSSIN’ AROUND
She drops to 54kg and Craig Williams jumps on. She has only had two starts but she has ran on impressively in both. The fast speed will suit her and she may just be too good at some juicy odds.

 

 

RACE 7
4.06pm Chester Manifold Stakes 1400m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

8. ZUPACHARGED
He is flying and fit. His effort in the Standish from near the tail of the field was outstanding and he can go on here in the drop down to Listed grade. His record at 1400m is strong and he is certainly a danger at 54kg. The slow speed may be a challenge as he is usually ridden cold.

6. NOELA’S CHOICE
Her first up run was very impressive, she finished only 1L off Durendal. She has no second up wins but can go on from her first run. She finally draws a decent barrier here (she drew 10 or wider four from five of her last starts) and has the chance to sit closer to the speed.

1. DANCES ON STARS (NZ)
He will sit near the tail of the field but D.Oliver seems to be a genius at winning the slow speed races by making tactical moves at exactly the right time. He wasn’t far in Listed company last time out and has been freshened up here.

MAIN DANGER

2. TRIED AND TIRED
He is third up here and looks ready. The step up to 1400m suits and M.Zahra stays on.

 

RACE 8
4.46pm Piping Lane Handicap 2000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

4. METAPHORICAL
She has been running on strongly this prep and the 200m is perfect. She has form at the distance and her runs at Flemington haven’t been bad (one was her third ever start unsuitably in Group 2 company). She drops to a dangerous 53kg after the claim. She was only 0.4L off Signoff last time out.

10. ALLERGIC
He has a strong record at 2000m and was only 2L off Delicacy in Group 1 company last prep. Her run last time out was good.

6. SABOR A TRIUNFO (CHI)
He is third up here and gets some weight relief. The dry track here will suit better than his run last time out where he still ran well. Not too sure on barrier 1, he may run into traffic.
MAIN DANGER

8. SECOND BULLET
He won well last time out at this trip and should get a very similar run here. His record at 2000m is very impressive (3: 2-1-0) and D.Oliver jumps on.

RACE 9
5.26pm Tauto Handicap 1000m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

2. ROUGH JUSTICE
His record at Flemington (7: 2-2-2) and at 1000m (11: 4-4-1) is too hard to ignore. I’m hoping he will sit just behind the fast speed and run on. He is unbeaten this prep and must respect the Ellerton/Zahra stable.

6. PINK PERFECTION
She drops 4kg from her last run here with the claim and has form at the trip & track. Her second up record is strong (4: 2-0-0) and must be included.

7. TANSY
She resumed well and has second up form. She will be off the speed.
MAIN DANGER

5. BELESRON
He is flying this prep and drops to 54kg here. He has a strong record at 1000m and will be sitting off the speed. With a fast pace predicted he may just be too good.