Black Caviar Lightning Day 20-02-2016

Meeting: Flemington

Rail: True entire circuit
Track: Good 3
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 3
Weather forecast: Partly cloudy, 22 degrees

Speed maps (click): PDF – Flemington 200216 maps

 

Flemington image 20022016
Image courtesy of Flemington 

Race 1
12.25PM The Curragh Racecourse Trophy 1600m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

1. ALL CERISE
She is in form and won well here three weeks ago. She is unbeaten at 1600m from three starts and Ben Melham stays on from her last win. She will be the leader here and with a slow pace on paper she should be hard to beat.
4. VITAL IMPORTANCE
She has been running on strongly and her two starts in Melbourne, both at Flemington, have been good. The blinkers come off here, Damien Oliver jumps on and she drops down to 55.5kg. From an inside barrier and without much pace in this race she can sit closer and I’m sure will be running on strongly again!

6. MARLI MAGIC
She has been consistent of late and is at a lightweight 52.5kg after Jessica Payne’s claim. She ran well at 1600m two starts ago.

MAIN DANGER
5. WRITTEN
Her win a fortnight ago was impressive and being third up here she has the fitness to go on. She has drawn to sit closer here.

 

Race 2
1.00pm International Race Clubs Talindert Stakes 1100m
Speed: Unclear
Most advantaged: N/A

3. WEATHERLY
She missed the jump at her first outing but ran home strongly. She has drawn wide but this is down the straight. Craig Williams stays on.

9. PEARL CONGENIAL
She resumes here after two good runs in her first prep. She will be up near the speed and if they don’t go hard she will be competitive here.

1. JACKSON
He was good on debut last prep where he ran on from the tail of the field to get the photo. He was then caught behind runners at Randwick. He resumes here, race plates go on.

MAIN DANGER
16. CONSCIOUS
She is by So You Think and won a jumpout here a month ago.

 

 

Race 3
1.37pm Auckland Racing Club Trophy 1000m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

1. JAPHILS
She has won first up and ran well against some good horses last prep. However she will need to be at her best as she will be on the speed and there looks to be pace in this race.

8. ESTAMINET
She resumed with a strong win and can go on here. She has a good record at 1000m and is in light with 54kg.

2. ROSE OF FALVELON
She has a strong record at 1000m and is third up here. She was good behind Aunty Mo who won again last night. This is harder but Damien Oliver jumps on and she gets some weight relief.

MAIN DANGER
4. SWEET EMILY
She has the strongest record at 1000m out of all the starters in this race and has second up form. She ran well in this grade last prep and the fast speed will suit her.

 

 

Race 4
2.12pm Japan Racing Association Trophy 2000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

1. FALAGO
His win last week was impressive and he can go on here in an easier grade. The even speed will suit him, he will be up on the pace and should get a similar run to last week. Harry Coffey stays on and his claim helps here.

9. TUFF HOST
He is going well this prep, take out his run a fortnight ago where he had a slow recovery. He gets in light with 52.5kg after the claim.

2. GOLDEN MANE
He won well from the tail of the field at his last outing and Damian Lane stays on from that run. He has a good record at 2000m.

MAIN DANGER

11. PEMBERLEY (NZ)
He is going good this prep but he may need a bit of luck (or speed in the race) to win here. He stays down at 54kg and likes Flemington.

 

 

Race 5
2.47pm The TAB Vanity 1400m
Speed: Slow
Most advantaged: On pace

1. JAMEKA
She has placed at both of her first up runs and has only run outside the trifecta once from 9 starts. She won the Oaks in good fashion by 2.2L during the Spring carnival. She likes Flemington and will be up on the pace.

2. PERFECT REFLECTION
The superstar from Perth makes her Victorian debut. She is unbeaten and is a big chance here. She beat Delicacy in the Group 1 Kingston Town at her last outing last prep. She does come against a tougher field here but no doubt she will be in the finish.

4. DON’T DOUBT MAMMA
She ran well behind Mahuta in Group 2 company last prep but may need more speed to win here. However she is unbeaten at 1400m from two starts and must be included in multiples.

MAIN DANGER
3. SACRED EYE
She had a good first prep and was competitive here in the Group 2 Manifold where she finished 2L off Badawiya. She handles Flemington and could sit closer in the slow pace. She is a good each way chance.

 

 

Race 6
3.25pm CS Hayes Stakes 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

5. READY FOR VICTORY
He resumed well and does run well here. He doesn’t have any placings at 1400m but his Guineas Prelude run can be forgiven where he ran into trouble but finished strongly. He will sit midfield and with an even pace he will be running on strongly. He was only 2L off Press Statement in the Caulfield Guineas.

1. GOLD SYMPHONY
He is at huge odds here and overs in my opinion. He won in SWP conditions in the Group 3 Vain Stakes & McNeil last prep. Forgive his fun last time out where he was scoped and mucus found. He has drawn well here.

2. BON AURUM
He is also at decent odds here and has second up form. He has a strong record at 1400m and drops down to 57.5kg. He won the Group 3 Guineas Prelude well last prep and is a good each way chance here.

MAIN DANGER
7. LIZARD ISLAND
He ran well behind Press Statement to finish 2nd beaten 1.8L in the Caulfield Guineas. He has drawn well and will be up on the speed.

 

 

Race 7
4.07pm Black Caviar Lightning 1000m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

1. CHAUTAUQUA
I can’t fault him. His first up record is nearly flawless (5: 4-1-0) and he loves the Flemington straight. He won twice at WFA level last prep including a dominating win in the Group 1 Manikato. I don’t see them stringing out too much here, there’s not much pace predicted but they will all sit close in the small field. He has strong sectional times and has beaten some good horses. He’s the class runner here.

5. EXOSPHERE
He has trialled impressively and has a great overall record. He wasn’t disgraced down the straight in the Group 1 Coolmore and this is his first try in WFA conditions.

3. DELECTATION
He was very good at nice odds in the Darley where he beat Chautauqua. He has won first up and will be running on.

MAIN DANGER
6. JAPONISME
He ran well finishing behind Exosphere in a recent trial and has first up form. He is at double figure odds (as of 8am 20/02). His win in the Group 1 Coolmore was strong and he will be up near the pace.

 

 

Race 8
4.45pm Ascot Racecourse Trophy 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

1. CHARMED HARMONY
He almost has a perfect first up record and runs well at 1400m here. The claim helps. He will be on the pace, there looks to be even speed and he could take some catching.

10. DAN ZEPHYR
He is in form and gets in light with 52.5kg after the claim. He stays at 1400m which is his best distance and meets a similar field to his last win a fortnight ago.
4. KENJORWOOD
He runs well here and has first up form. He wasn’t disgraced behind The Cleaner in the Feeham last prep. He will be up on the speed.
MAIN DANGER
11. UNDERESTIMATION
He gets a few gear changes here and stays down in the weights. He’s third up and both of his runs in Melbourne have been good.

 

Race 9
5.22pm The Hong Kong Jockey Club Trophy 1200m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

 

9. ONEROUS
He is unbeaten this prep and stays at 1200m which is arguably his best distance. He was only 0.3L off Malaguerra back in September who went on to win twice within a week in the Flemington Spring Carnival. He stays down in the weights and will sit just behind the speed. There looks to be pace in this race and he will be hard to beat.

4. HENWOOD (NZ)
He doesn’t have the strongest win record here but generally runs well. He has won at 1200m. He is at big odds and can run a place.

5. LONROCKSTAR
He was good last start where he ran on to finish 2nd. He gets a bit of weight relief with the claim and runs okay at 1200m here. He can run a sneaky one.
MAIN DANGER
7. ROUGH JUSTICE
He has no wins at 1200m from three starts but has finished 3rd in two of them. He loves Flemington and has only finished outside the trifecta twice from 8 starts. He has to be included in multiples.