Australian Guineas Day 5-03-2016

Meeting: Flemington

Rail: True entire circuit
Track: Good 4
Predicted track condition as of 3pm: Good 3
Weather forecast: Cloudy, 25 degrees

Speed maps (click): PDF – Flemington 050316 maps

 flemington-Races-map-e1362006747877

Race 1
12.40PM Saintly Handicap 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

1. TOP ME UP
He has been running sound this prep and meets an easier field here. He looks like leader and will be able to control the speed. They shouldn’t go too hard here and he should be too strong for them.
5. SISTINE SPIRIT
She resumed well last start and the step up to 1400m suits. She drops down to 54kg and ran on strongly to win well at 1400m last prep. P.Moloney rode her in that effort and jumps back on here.

2. SEA OF TRANQUILITY
His only win has been at 1100m but he can run on. He has trialled okay.

MAIN DANGER
4. LAZUMBA
She resumed to break her maiden in good fashion and can be competitive here. She wasn’t bad behind a good one in Don’t Doubt Mamma in group company last prep.

 

Race 2
1.15pm 3AW 693 News Talk Sports Stakes 1000m
Speed: Not clear
Most advantaged: N/A

9. ALTER CALL
She jumped out well and is nicely bred. Her dam won the Group 1 Rupert Clarke in 2010.

1. SWORD OF LIGHT
Forgive her last start when the fast pace didn’t suit. She is the class runner here and meets an easier field than her last two outings.

5. EMPHATICALLY
She ran well behind Sword Of Light in the Blue Diamond Preview and gets the weight advantage here to turn the stakes.

MAIN DANGER
7. SELENIA
Still a maiden but she has run well in her two outings to date. She looks talented and is well weighted here.

 

 

Race 3
1.55pm Mrs Mac’s Family Bakery Sprint 1100m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

10. ESTAMINET
She handled the straight perfectly here a week ago. She stays down in the weights and has a strong record at 1100m. She is unbeaten this prep from two starts.

9. MISS SETON SANDS
This is her first start in Australia. She won the Group 1 Telegraph back in January and the dry ground suits. Definitely one to keep an eye on!

8. CELERITAS
She gets weight relief here after a good win a fortnight ago. The fast speed will suit her, she will be sitting behind the leaders ready to pounce.

MAIN DANGER
6. EXCLUSIVE LASS
She has drawn well here after two wide draws in her last two starts. Her first up form is alright. She was competitive in group company last prep and won the Black Pearl well. Nautical ran 2nd in that then came out and won the Bow Mistress in Tas.

 

 

Race 4
2.30pm 3AW Roy Higgins Quality 2600m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

2. REAL LOVE
She is so consistent and ran well in the Torney Cup a fortnight ago where she was unlucky and stuck for a run at critical stages. She draws out a bit here and will be hard to beat, the fast pace will suit her.

5. BLACK JAG
He is in light at the weights here and will be on the speed. However there may be too much pace for him to win this, he is at good each way odds.

9. DANDY GENT
The 2600m will be no issue for this mare. She has drawn well and will be sitting at the tail of the field. If the leaders put the pressure on look for her to be running on.

MAIN DANGER
4. ASSIGN (IRE)
He is unbeaten from two runs in this prep and is unbeaten on a dry track. He should sit positive from a good draw and the 54kg will feel like a feather compared to the 62kg he carried to victory from a wide draw two starts back.

 

 

Race 5
3.10pm TAB Rewards Stakes 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

4. BURNING FRONT
He is flying and the step back to 1400m won’t hurt. He looks the sole leader here and could take some running down. He has drawn for the perfect run.

6. DAN ZEPHYR
He has an impressive record at 1400m here and looked a class above a fortnight ago. He goes up 2kg but is still only carrying 54kg. He will have a prime spot just behind the leaders.

7. MIGHTY LIKE
He ran on well a fortnight ago here and has a fantastic 1400m record. C.Newitt stays on.

MAIN DANGER
3. RED BOMBER
He has a strong second up record (4: 2-1-0) and has won 3 from 5 at 1400m. He will appreciate the drop in grade here and probably also the smaller field! Look for him to be swooping late.

 

 

Race 6
3.50pm ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m
Speed: Fast
Most advantaged: Off pace

2. MISS PROMISCUITY
She has a strong resuming record and is often over the odds. She was so impressive when she won the Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes last prep. Forgive her last run on Oaks Day where she was unsuited on a heavy track. With a fast pace predicted she will be running on strongly.

1. LUMOSTY
She seems to grow an extra set of legs here, she loves Flemington and all of her resuming runs have seen her finish in the top 2. The 58kg is against her and she may be anchored down vs some of the lighter weight chances.

3. MALAGUERRA
He is unbeaten first up and only lost once from 5 starts last prep including two wins within a week in the Spring Carnival. That loss was only by 0.1L. He will be up on the pace and there looks to be a lot of speed in this, possibly too much for him to win unless he takes a sit.

MAIN DANGER
4. HEADWATER
He was certainly the best looking in the yard when resuming, his coat was glowing and has been freshened up here. The 1000m is his go and he has won second up. He was only 1.5L off Buffering in the Moir.

 

 

Race 7
4.30pm Australian Guineas 1600m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

5. XTRAVAGANT (NZ)
I am very keen to see this NZ star. His winning margins have been impressive including two wins at Group 1 level by over 8L. He has drawn well, will be up on the speed and with an even pace he will take some catching.

 

1. MAHUTA
He gets some weight relief here with SW conditions. He has been stepping up to each challenge that is presented to him and has a case here. The blinkers seem to be a godsend – he is unbeaten from 6 runs since they went on.

 

14. PERFECT REFLECTION
The blinkers come on here and she is well weighted with 54.5kg. She was good when resuming in the Vanity where she was stuck for a run. She ran on well to finish 3rd beaten 0.9L.

 

MAIN DANGER
15. RISQUE (NZ)
Her Australian debut was impressive. She is unbeaten at 1600m from two starts.She is a Group 1 winner already having won the 1000 Guineas in NZ back in November. Damian Lane stays on.

 

Race 8
5.10pm Frances Tressady Stakes 1400m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

2. JESSY BELLE
She runs well at Flemington and has a good record at 1400m. Chris Symons stays on after a good resuming run where the slow pace was against her. She meeds an even pace here and should finish closer. She has won second up.

6. ABIDEWITHME (NZ)
She was competitive in Group 1 company last prep and almost has a perfect resuming record. Half of her wins have been at 1400m and she is weighted light here with only 55kg.

 

1. WAWAIL
She is third up and runs well here. Damien Oliver jumps on and the blinkers go on. She gave Politeness a scare in Group 3 company last prep.
MAIN DANGER
10. MOSSBEAT
She is a good each way chance here at odds. Her 60% place strike rate is consistent and she will sit closer from barrier 3. She often has very good 400m and 200m sectionals. The step up to 1400m suits, look for her to be running on strongly.

 

Race 9
5.45pm Antler Luggage Trophy 1800m
Speed: Even
Most advantaged: Just behind pace

 

8. DIVAN (NZ)
He sneaks up in the weights here and Damien Oliver jumps back on. He has won second up and has drawn well. He was good behind the in form Dan Zephyr from a wide barrier a fortnight ago.

15. SPREADEAGLED (NZ)
Dwayne Dunn stays on after two wins. He is untested at 1800m but I don’t see it being any issue. He will be up on the pace.

7. FALAGO
He seems to have found his form again and ran well here a fortnight ago where the 2000m seemed just a bit far. He steps back to 1800m here and could run a sneaky one at odds.
MAIN DANGER
21. DODGING BULLETS
He is third up here and looks primed for this after a good run a fortnight ago. He gets out to 1800m which suits but has drawn wide but comes in a few after the scratchings.